The H-1B lottery didn’t just get more competitive this year — it became more strategic.

Under the new wage-weighted system, how you structure a role now directly impacts your chances. Higher wage levels are seeing meaningfully better selection rates, with mid- to senior-level roles outperforming entry-level positions by a wide margin. This marks a clear shift from a largely random process to one that rewards how employers position their hires.

At the same time, overall registration volume appears to be down. Increased scrutiny, alongside the introduction of a $100,000 fee for certain filings, has led some employers to sit out the lottery or be more selective in who they sponsor. In the short term, this has improved selection odds. But that window may be temporary, especially if policy changes reverse some of these constraints.

This creates a particularly challenging dynamic for early-career hiring. Entry-level roles are now facing both lower selection probability and potential increases in required wage thresholds. For teams that rely on junior international talent, this is where the pressure is building most quickly.

Looking ahead, much of the uncertainty centers around a few key variables. The potential expiration of the $100,000 fee could drive registration numbers back up, tightening odds again. Proposed increases to prevailing wages may further reduce participation, particularly at lower levels. Ultimately, total registration volume will continue to be the biggest driver of how competitive the lottery becomes.

What we’re seeing from operators is a shift in mindset. Compensation strategy is being reconsidered not just for market competitiveness, but for its impact on selection probability. Planning is happening earlier, with teams thinking about visa pathways well before the lottery window. Alternative options like the O-1 visa are increasingly part of the core hiring strategy rather than a fallback. And instead of entering as many candidates as possible, teams are being more intentional about who they put forward.

The H-1B process is no longer just an operational step. It’s a strategic lever. And the teams that adjust early — across compensation, timing, and overall talent strategy — will be better positioned to navigate what comes next.

To read the full piece, click here. This was written in collaboration with Manifest Law, partners to StartupExperts and advisors to high-growth companies navigating global talent and immigration strategy. To learn more about Manifest Law, visit https://manifestlaw.com/.